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Comment on the Spring Statement: repositioning Rishi

Rishi Sunak gave his Spring Statement on 23 March 2022. It felt like there was a fair amount of sleight of hand aimed at repositioning the Chancellor as a champion of traditional Conservative tax-cuts, following a period of significant tax increases responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a result, there was a tax giveaway from 6 July 2022 said to be worth £6.25bn by raising the employee national insurance contributions (NICs) thresholds to align them with the income tax personal allowance at £12,570, benefitting workers. Arguably however this measure does little more than cancel out around half the planned NICs rise in the last Budget– albeit redistributing the burden, benefitting lower earners. This increased both employees' and employers' NICs by 1.25% from 6 April 2022 under the banner of a health and social care levy . Remember that under those changes the dividend rate of income tax will also go up from 6 April 2022 by 1.25% (to 39.35%), as announced in September 2021, hurting investors.

This was combined with some VAT breaks for environmental/energy saving investment by households, and a promise to cut income tax in 2024 by dropping the basic rate of income tax to 19% - a tax cut for pretty much everyone, but not for a while. This seems like a clear indication that the government is planning on a general election in 2024, notwithstanding plans to get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

There was of course also the immediate fuel duty cut by 5p/litre, which will get a lot of attention in the context of the significant inflation already being experienced.

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